This year’s scorching summer of heatwaves has yet again underlined the dramatic impact of climate volatility on global crops. And analysis of the latest season has highlighted the rising pressure on the global brewing industry in particular.

At the end of August, UK barley prices were up 37% year on year, while in France they spiked 23%, according to a report from analysts at investment bank Berenberg. The report also cites US Department of Agriculture data, which puts world barley stocks at their lowest levels since 1984.

Meanwhile, although prices and supply of the other core beer ingredient, hops, were broadly stable this year, a drought in the Czech Republic reduced prized Saaz hops production by more than 30%. And with on-trend craft beer typically using 30 times more hops that traditional brews, the shortage has been especially keenly felt by this flourishing sector.

Developing El Niño conditions are likely to contribute to warmer global average temperatures again next year – and lead to a repeat of summer 2018. While, in the longer-term, projections are that climate change and increases in extreme weather events are likely to lead to more dramatic price hikes and supply chain challenges. Indeed, extreme weather could reduce global barley yield by up to 17%, according to research published in the journal Nature Plants in October.

This is naturally a significant concern for growers keen to protect their livelihoods and buyers struggling to secure their supply each season.

But advances in machine learning and statistical science make it possible to create powerful solutions that address fears at both ends of the supply chain. By drawing on the relevant data points from the billions available, AI can help provide early and accurate signals that can enable more informed decisions to be made much earlier each season.

Here’s how it works using a real-life scenario:

Global brewer feels the heat when severe drought affects multi-million dollar hops order

In 2015, high temperatures and low rainfall led to drought conditions in key growing areas for Saaz hops. In August, a fortnight before scheduled delivery, a hop producer informed one of its brewery buyers of a 31% supply loss and a 140% price increase. This led to significant supply issues and cost implications that had to be passed onto their customers. It also affected the future relationship between the producer and buyer.

In this scenario the shortfall was highlighted only two weeks out – leaving little time to make contingency plans.

We have developed technology that enables us to predict yields and potential disruptions to crop growth early and accurately, so we put our science to the test. We asked our machine learning and statistical scientists to run the hops scenario through our platform to see how much earlier we could have surfaced early warnings about the shortfall. We then analysed the difference the early warning information would have made to growers and buyers.

Combining statistical science, computational sustainability, geospatial, and agronomic data, our platform would have predicted this disruption an invaluable six times earlier and three months out from expected crop delivery – in May, rather than August – with 91% accuracy.

This would have given buyers significantly more time to secure additional supply, at a lower price. They would have been informed in time to make changes to their own purchasing plans, promotions, and factory production settings, and recipes could have been changed according to the predicted supply. Difficult decisions could be made earlier and with more confidence, leading to far greater business efficiencies.

Meanwhile for growers, it would have exponentially increased their ability to plan; for crop management, financially and for harvesting. Early yield disruption warnings also enable growers to manage relationships with their customers; buyers or intermediate processors, adding value and giving all parties confidence to continue working together in the future.

In an alternative scenario, where there was a surplus of supply: this type of early signal is equally useful for farmers to optimise their harvest and minimise waste.

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With climate volatility growing, livelihoods are increasingly vulnerable to extreme weather, but embracing new technology is a powerful way to manage the risks better. We are already putting this into practice in real time for a number of forward-thinking Fortune 500 companies.

Smart buyers and their growers are starting to capitalise on advances in AI and machine learning, and taking advantage of pioneering software that is empowering them to make better-informed, earlier, and more confident, decisions that drive efficiency and reduce stress. And into the future, long-range predictions and scenario planning tools are enabling them to both protect food (and beer) supplies for generations to come, and help to regenerate our planet.

Photography is by Markus Spiske on Unsplash.

 

Ernesta Baniulyte 
Product Designer

Ernesta has been a full-stack product designer for more than five years. She has valuable experience in the B2B, B2C and B2B2C worlds, and while working at both agencies and product/service companies, she has learned to develop UX research infrastructures to support strategy.

At Cervest, Ernesta contributes to all stages of the product development process – from initial ideation to the exacting detail of UI design – finding new ways to visualise data, and ensure our product is intuitive and user friendly.

Ernesta’s decision to join Cervest was inspired by her desire to make the world a safer, better and more aware place.

Ramani Lachyan 
Junior Research Scientist

Ramani joined Cervest after obtaining her Master’s in Physics from ETH, Zurich. She brings with her valuable experience gained through working on model building and data simulation pertaining to neutrino physics.

Ramani has joined Cervest as a Junior Research Scientist and will be working on creating algorithms that allow for the extraction of physical observables from data from a range of sources.

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Lukas Scholtes 
Statistical Scientist

Lukas completed his maths BSc at ETH Zurich, followed by an MSc in statistics at Imperial College. He wrote his MSc thesis in collaboration with Cervest, on the modelling of North American wheat yields via Bayesian parametric and non-parametric methods.

Following an internship in the NGO sector in Bangladesh and a stint in the world of fintech, Lukas comes to Cervest, excited to apply himself to the challenges that are arising as a consequence of unsustainable land-use policies and climate change.

Aidan Coyne
Junior Researcher

Aidan is currently pursuing a Bachelor of Arts and Sciences in Science and Engineering at University College London with a focus on computer science and data informatics.

At Cervest, Aidan is working on researching and assimilating a database of articles categorising the reasons for extreme decreases in crop yields across Europe. The information will be used to help predict the impact of weather events on crop yield and contribute to  Cervest’s ability to bring clarity to decision making around climatic and extreme events.

While studying, she also volunteers with environmental conservation groups and youth engagement programmes.

Jasmine Thompson
Engineering Resident

Jasmine’s background is primarily in Python programming with a focus on data analysis and visualisation.

Since graduating, she has worked on data insights for a London-based dating app startup, helping the company understand the user base and guide new growth. She is now excited to use her skills to help Cervest deliver playback data and useful data analysis and is passionate about the potential of data science, machine learning and visualisation tools.

While studying at Westcliff High School for Girls she was involved in a variety of projects including GUI design for BAE Systems and data collection for a surveillance vehicle project sponsored by Leonardo S.p.A. She was also the Data Analyst for a long-running Southend Youth Council project that advocated for students having better mental health services in school.

Stoyan Binev
Junior Software Engineer

Stoyan is a BSc student at King’s College London with two years’ experience in software engineering.

With experience working for Amazon and Google as a software engineer, as well as for a fintech start-up, Stoyan was inspired to join Cervest’s by its planet-wide scale and the opportunity to make a positive impact in the world.

He is currently finishing his degree and dissertation while also specialising in data processing at Cervest.

Agnes Schim van der Loeff
Policy Researcher

Agnes joined Cervest after completing her BA in Arabic and Development Studies from SOAS University of London. She is interested in the intersection of the social, economic and political dimensions of climate change and passionate about climate justice. During her studies she was also engaged in environmental activism, including as environment officer in the SOAS students’ union.

Agnes started at Cervest as a research resident exploring the ethical implications of AI in relation to climate change, which resulted in a paper selected for an oral presentation at the NeurIPS 2019 workshop on AI for social good. Building on this, she is developing an ethical framework for Cervest. As policy researcher she now does research on the regulatory context of Cervest’s work and on emerging policies relating to climate change. 

Kate Chkhaidze
Machine Learning Scientist

Kate joined Cervest after completing her PhD study at the Institute of Cancer Research, University of London. Her Project was on statistical and computational modelling of cancer evolution. Her educational background is in pure mathematics (BSc – Tbilisi State University) and statistics (MSc – Imperial College London). Before deciding to study for a PhD, she worked as a junior analyst/developer at the Bank of Georgia and in parallel was giving lectures in Statistics to undergraduate students in Tbilisi for almost two years.

At Cervest, she will be working as a Machine Learning Scientist on crop classification problems. She loves the mission and goal of the company and is very excited to be a part of the process of achieving it.